About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Monday, 29 May 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Sunday, 28 May 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 29

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2416, 1.83%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9595, 1.77%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3110, 0.63%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1268, 1.16%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
49.80, -1.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.55, -0.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
912, -4.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.118, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
111.33, 0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9176, 3.35%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.33, 0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.25%, 0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
543, 16.27%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
9.81, -18.52%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
125
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2394, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2373, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2263, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9403, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9263, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8717, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
10.86, -3.89%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.56, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9

10
Bearish Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is at new highs. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Japan – Capital spending, New Zealand – Wheeler speech, Euro Zone – German CPI, Employment data, Euro zone CPI, ECB rate decision, Draghi speech,
U.S – ISM, Personal consumption expenditure, Consumer confidence, Employment data, Canada – GDP, PMI, Mexico – Inflation report
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals may 29



The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals, the transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2425 (up) and 2400 (down) on the S & P and 9650 (up) and 9550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.